The Election Horse Race

Sometimes, people complain that media coverage of elections is more about the horse race -- who is likely to win or lose -- than any actual discussion of issues.  I suppose in our era of instant gratification we want the answers now, and would prefer not to delay until after the first Tuesday in November.  This can also suppress voter turnout as people believe the election is already set.

Nonetheless, for those wanting the current, best data, here are the two sites with the most accurate predictions.

Electoral-vote.com   The "Votemaster," an expat computer professor in the Netherlands.
Fiverthirtyfive.com   Nate Silver - the statistical guru, now employed by ESPN, formerly with NYTimes.

Did you know you can legally "bet" on elections?  The U of Iowa runs a non-profit "business" where investors can purchase "shares" in upcoming elections.  Real money.  As of October 21, you could buy an option for $0.94 that the US Senate will be controlled by Republicans in the next session.  If this happens, you can sell your share for $1.00.  Prices fluctuate: two months ago that same share would have only cost you $0.64.  Their model has been accurate in that once real money is on the line, most of the emotional bias is removed.  Iowa Electronic Markets.

Enjoy, but please, still vote.